Public Debt, Governance Quality, And Human Development: Empirical Evidence From West Africa
This study examines the impact of public debt, governance quality, and debt servicing on human development in West Africa, within the framework of the Dual Gap Theory. Using balanced panel data for 17 West African countries covering the period 2010–2024, the HDI is employed as a comprehensive measure of development outcomes. To account for endogeneity, heterogeneity, and distributional effects, the study applied a combination of QvM regression and system GMM. The empirical results reveal that government debt and debt service payments exerted a consistently negative and statistically significant effect on human development across the entire development distribution, with the strongest adverse impacts observed at median development levels. In contrast, governance quality emerges as the most influential positive determinant of human development, significantly enhancing the effectiveness of public resources and mitigating the adverse effects of debt. Gross fixed capital formation and trade openness also contribute positively to human development, underscoring the roles of investment and external sector integration in alleviating savings–investment and foreign exchange constraints. Diagnostic tests confirm the validity and robustness of the GMM estimates. Overall, the evidence suggests that public debt can undermine human development in West Africa when not supported by strong institutions and productive investment. The study has highlighted the central importance of governance reforms, prudent debt management, and strategic investment and trade policies in advancing sustainable human development across the region.
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